I’ll Probably Be Out Fishin’

Song Meaning

The narrator's life is a series of dashed hopes, starting with a high school sweetheart who married his best friend while he was serving in the Navy. This initial betrayal sets a tone of resigned disappointment that colors his subsequent experiences. Even when he tries to climb the corporate ladder with a promotion and a raise at the saw mill, that opportunity is immediately snatched away when the mill is sold. The lyrics paint a picture of a man consistently on the cusp of something good, only to have it evaporate. The central tension lies in the narrator's passive acceptance of misfortune. He asks, "What's a guy to say? What's a guy to do?" but offers no proactive solutions. Instead, he anticipates future setbacks with a weary fatalism. The idea of his "ship comes in" is presented not as a genuine hope for future success, but as a hypothetical event he'll likely miss because he's already opted out. This creates a poignant contrast between the potential for good fortune and his expectation of being absent when it arrives. The most striking image is the recurring line, "I'll probably be out fishing / When my ship comes in." This isn't about a love for fishing; it's a metaphor for choosing to disengage from the possibility of success or happiness because he expects disappointment. It suggests a self-protective withdrawal, a way to avoid the sting of further betrayal by not being present for the potential payoff. He's already accepted the blues, even if he "paints this whole town red." This resignation makes the lyrics hit hard because it captures a specific kind of quiet despair. It's not about grand tragedy, but the accumulation of small, predictable letdowns that lead to a feeling of inevitability. The narrator's choice to be fishing when his ship comes in is a quiet surrender, a poignant admission that he's learned to expect the worst, and perhaps finds more peace in avoiding the chase than in the potential, but unlikely, win.